The Wisdom of Crowds
- Aug. 23rd, 2004 at 2:31 AM
- Music:Mystera-Mystera-Emer Kenny - Golden Brown

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Comments
Reading the Amazon reviews, it looks like it's not so much crowds which are wise, rather specific collections of people:
"The four conditions that characterize wise crowds:
1. Diversity of opinion (each person should have some private information, even if its just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts)
2. Independence (people's opinions are not determined by the opinions of those around them)
3. Decentralization (people are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge)
4. Aggregation (some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision.) "
Somehow, I don't think the crowds at the amusement park last weekend satisfy those conditions. I'll check it out when I go to B/N today.
Hence when many people are acting together in the moment, they are extra stupid. When many people are acting independently, they are extra smart.
http://www.npr.org/features/feature.php?w
They used the crowd to guess the author's weight. I don't know if it was staged, but averaging everyone's answer was pretty much dead on.
Henry
Surowiecki also seems to be one of those people that, now that I know who he is, his name seems to come up everywhere I look, usually in association with things I'm very intrigued by.
I haven't read this book, but I've heard very good things about it from a variety of sources. It's already on my list, but that doesn't mean much - I've got a long list. =)