So with what is arguably the greatest financial crisis in 80 years happening around us, what do y'all think about owning gold & silver, as a hedge against the breakdown of the international financial system?
Personally I have a lot of confidence in said international financial system, even after everything that's happened. Yeah, I'm worried about a run on the dollar, I'm worried about the US socializing a big sector of the economy and that weighing on our growth prospects. But I'm not very worried that the dollars in my safe will become worthless pieces of paper, and the ammo in my closet will become far more valuable. I think the US still produces lots of valuable stuff, and that puts a floor under the dollar.
Am I overly optimistic? Should I own physical gold & silver as preparation for a true apocalypse? Are there realistic situations where it would be better to stock up on gold & silver than on ammo & food? Are there realistic situations where it would be better to stock up on physical gold & silver than on financial futures related to gold & silver?
Are you worried about apocalypse? How are you hedging against it?
Personally I have a lot of confidence in said international financial system, even after everything that's happened. Yeah, I'm worried about a run on the dollar, I'm worried about the US socializing a big sector of the economy and that weighing on our growth prospects. But I'm not very worried that the dollars in my safe will become worthless pieces of paper, and the ammo in my closet will become far more valuable. I think the US still produces lots of valuable stuff, and that puts a floor under the dollar.
Am I overly optimistic? Should I own physical gold & silver as preparation for a true apocalypse? Are there realistic situations where it would be better to stock up on gold & silver than on ammo & food? Are there realistic situations where it would be better to stock up on physical gold & silver than on financial futures related to gold & silver?
Are you worried about apocalypse? How are you hedging against it?


Comments
In terms of what to buy... Gold and Silver are probably good. I think they might be overvalued now, but if the dollar and euro collapse, they will be good investments.
If things get *really* bad, you should invest in canned goods... but I'm not thinking it will get that bad.
If you're really worried about an apocalypse, it seems to me that your best investments are things that will have value after an apocalypse, like ammunition, canned goods, basic tools, seeds, etc.
Physical gold, unlike most other goods, is highly portable and universally valued. If you need to flee the country quickly (during Nazi regime, Russian pogroms, Cultural Revolution, Japanese internment), you can store enough gold in the seams of your clothing to restart your life in another country.
Here's a more likely one: massive devaluation of the USD, combined with capital control laws that make it difficult for Americans to avoid the USD by investing in foreign markets & currencies. Then gold has use as a stable alternative to the dollar. This is basically the Zimbabwe scenario.
Unless it was preceded by registration of the sale of physical gold, I don't think it would be a problem :).
Personally, I share your general level of confidence, and nearly all of the gold I own is paper gold (IAU). Thus if the financial system does actually really and catastrophically collapse, there is a good chance that I'll never actually be able to "cash in" my paper gold.
I think the primary reason to hold gold is as a hedge agaisnt monetary risk. Right now it looks like most of the big economies are in a state of monetary uncertainy. I don't think anyone knows if the future will bring monetary deflation (as well as credit deflation) or hyper-inflation. There's also the chance that retaliatory devaluations enter into the game. That is to say, that everyone rushes to the printing press to keep each other's devaluations from killing their their foreign trade (most specifically China's peg to the dollar). So a "basket" of currencies may not serve hedging purposes as well as gold.
But since you don't earn interest on gold (and in my case I have to pay a fund something ludicrous to manage it) you really only want to hold it as a hedge, not as a primary position. I think you'd have to be very very pessimistic to allocate more than 10% or so to commodities in a recessionary environment.
http://thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episo
"Another Frightening Show About The Economy". I haven't actually listened to it yet, so I don't know what it covers.
I don't view realistically potential apocalypses as "roving gangs breaking into your house situations," at least not initially- more like "I'm having a hard time keeping the power on (either beacause it is expensive or the infrastructure is hosed)" and "How come I'm not getting much/any water out of my tap."
In those cases, it isn't gold, food, or bullets that's really the tricky thing- but perhaps sources of power. Batteries, coal (if you have a lot of food that will require heating), and maybe fresh water.
Any crisis in which the infrastructure COMPLETELY breaks down (the grocery store loses power and can't freeze/refrigerate food, deliveries of water are interrupted or stopped) will be a nightmare as things get worse.
I have a really hard time believing that we could have that kind of disaster short of a coordinated NBC (nuke/bio/chemical) on multiple cities at the same time, and I don't feel like investing the time and effort in fully preparing for that disaster ahead of time.
Nah, a bunch of batteries, decent flashlights, good blankets, and a couple of weeks worth of food that doesn't require cooking is a really good start. At some point, we should probably get a few 5 gallon jugs of water, too.
If I had the cash to blow I'd get a shipping container full of generators and stick them in safe place that was cheap. I'd also set aside a couple of commercial grade water filter systems
But yes, water is the number one means of survival. The infrastructure required to deliver potable water is so extensive that we use it as the measure of a civilization, and yet you'd be dead in a week without it. In either the anarchy or totalitarian scenarios it would be useful to have a couple weeks water while gathering resources for an escape or waiting for a rescue.
Mostly, I think if an apocalypse happens, I'm just screwed. I'm not going to morph into Sarah Connor overnight, and I have no delusions about my levels of badassness.
I don't think storing gold/silver will be useful. Maybe it will buy stuff on a black market, but I'd think having needed items for barter would be more useful.
-just my two (copper) cents
I think you mean zinc.
If you're ranking chaos from 1 to 10, physical gold is probably a good deal for some incredibly narrow range, like 7 to 7.5.
Of course, the other problem is that it's almost not worth hedging against such a huge disaster. It might be better to make investments that avoid subsidizing practices that cause systemic risk (e.g. not holding money in banks, not getting involved in highly leveraged financial companies).
Why not just buy shares of low-leverage, high return-on-capital companies? If we switch to the gold standard, or start bartering cigarettes and mackerel, Coca-Cola will probably retain a huge fraction of its real value.
To respond to a previous commenter, gold isn't really in and of itself useful for many things--that much I agree with. But historically it's proven itself a useful monetary instrument as it doesn't corrode, can be materially divisible, and has a natural scarcity that is a natural deterrent to inflation.
Physically holding gold during an apocalypse is probably going to do little good (unless you're the pirate type, arrgh). But physically holding gold is a great way to store some of your dollar's value as it plummets like the Continental Dollar did. Holding gold through a recession/depression will likely preserve its present value, so after the recovery you have a small nest egg. Physically holding gold will prevent a possible confiscation in the spirit of Executive Order 6102 like FDR signed in 1933.
How much you store in-hand is a personal choice I suppose. You'd have to protect it like you would anything else of value within your house. Agreed too that more than 10% in gold is a pretty pessimistic outlook.
Since gold prices currently float, I don't see that the government has the same kind of incentive for a massive confiscation effort. And banks don't keep inventories of deposit boxes (and typically give you a privacy room so the teller can't even see the contents), so they'd have to drill the locks of every box to search them (unless you believe they keep the code or spare keys for the customer locks, but then why do they drill them if you lose your keys?). Not an insurmountable obstacle, but it seems unlikely to me.
Downsides of storing physical gold include the "need" to insure it. Your bank tries to protect, but I believe does not insure, the contents of your vault. Even if your homeower's policy covered it, which it almost certainly doesn't, it would have a terribly low limit without an explicit rider (my renter's policy limit is $300 for precious metals). But your insurance company is gone anyway in the apocalypse, so insurance is only useful for the more likely (but still pretty unlikely) bank-gets-robbed-completely-unrelated-to-a
I've been thinking about getting some gold bullion for my safebox, mostly as an apocalyptic hedge in the case of it sneaking up on me before I have time to stockpile all the other stuff people have been talking about (food, water, guns, ammo, fuel, generators). I live in an apartment without much storage, so stockpiling is tricky. But if I have some gold, I've got a chance of buying some black market goods. It would also let me eventually come out of the other side of the bread lines with some value still stored.
I should really do more research before continuing with this comment here and looking stupid, but someone will probably correct me or add detail. I believe Russia at one point experienced a scenario where the state basically took over all (only rental?) property, and wherever you had previously been living became "yours". No more buying, selling, or moving. Not that I think that is particularly likely to come to pass here, but given some historical precedent it's worth considering. At least I like my apartment, even if I'd rather be in a house (for many reasons including stockpiling ability). Yet now is still not an appropriate time to buy in the areas of San Diego that hold my attention.
(At $850/oz, $10k would be about 118 tenth-ounce coins, a 5.5 inch-high stack at 16.5mm diameter, very easy to store.)
I have a stock of physical silver (junk coins) as a money supply for high-chaos scenarios that fall just short of apocalyse. I also have ammo and food, but not in quantities to assure survival given an EOTWAWKI scenario. Just enough to ride out a wave of major chaos.
The hedges I'd choose against a real catastrophe would be food, water, and ammunition. And if it gets to that point, I'm probably dead anyway...
For lesser degrees of turmoil, some assets denominated in relatively strong foreign currencies, with some geographic diversity is probably better. Not that I know what the market in Swiss stocks looks like, but I don't think the risk of either degree of catastrophe is high enough to warrant my spending time studying the issue right now. (Relative US decline is, but just picking up some foreign stocks is the hedge for that.)
The other thing to consider is that hide-in-your-house kinds of reserves earn no (or negative: spoilage) interest, so you really don't want that much wealth in those forms.
Geez, I don't feel that old.
Depending on how you interpret Bretton Woods, though, you can get different definitions. I find any date after 1968 highly dubious, since business in the US was transacted in dollars, and the dollar didn't have a fixed peg at that point. Arguing in terms of market habit, though, the start of the Bretton Woods system really marks the end of gold as the primary currency: Other countries held dollars instead of gold, because they could be converted to gold if need be, but dollar holdings paid interest.
Or, alternately, you could mark the end of circulating US gold coins (1933) as the beginning of the end for metals currency.
Hard, metal-backed, currency has been gradually on the way out for some time... What you call the end (and for that matter, "a long time") is arguable. Certainly the Hunt Brothers' 1980 attempt to institute an alternate, silver-backed currency seemed more odd than workable.
- Has a use beyond value storage
- Less likely to be confiscated (either by government, or crossing borders), much less likely to raise suspicions
- Probably easier to insure
- Gold alloys are more durable
- more blingy
There's certainly a price premium, but some jewelry stores sell gold jewelry by the ounce/purity at only a small premium over market prices for bullion.
No. Moved to Australia. Bought property.
There may be personal disasters where it would be a good idea. Certain categories of government harassment, for instance - you might get a fair amount of value from some real-estate and assets in a semi-friendly country, along with enough expensive-looking jewelry and varied paper currency to trade for emergency off-book travel.
;)
Personally I am rooting for high inflation (to make my student loan debt insignificant) but not a full-blown apocalypse. :)
A.B.
One scenario, like the other guy pointed out, is to have a store of wealth that you can carry on your person as you exit the country *ahead* of the apocalypse. Sometimes (often?) there is a fair amount of warning before the shit really hits the fan.
Holding physical gold, if it is not registered, also might get you around the scenario where the government lays a punitive tax upon unpatriotic speculation in non-productive assets. Selling unregistered gold would presumably be illegal and somewhat dangerous in that situation, though.
I wish I had bought physical gold earlier as a hedge against scenario #1, but I didn't. I suspect that paper gold will do well over the next few years due to "global coordinated easing" of money supply. I've not bought much yet as we've also got deflation looming. Hard to know what to do.
If you think the US is going to get so bad that you have to evac to a better place, then (1) buy just enough gold to sew into your clothes and start a new life abroad, (2) why are you still here? You should still leave while jet travel is possible, right? and (3) Just where is better, exactly?
If you want to buy, buy stuff that's on sale. Land. Banks. Buffet plopped $5B of his $40B liquidity into one of the broken banks a week or so ago. Telling.
If the US tanks big time, anywhere in the geopolitical/financial world will suck, and most any financial instrument you own will collapse. Buy a compound where you can be self sufficient, arm yourself to the teeth, become self sufficient WRT food, energy, etc, and call yourself some freaky cult name, like Moose Men for Malted Moonshine (wait... pick something else, that one's MINE!)
As for all the gold in Calfornia, it's in a bank in the middle of Beverly Hills, in somebody else's name.
I think you have to live in Montana to be eligible to own the physical metal, though. =)
doing quite well.. but will $10kUSD buy me a loaf of bread? who knows.
We are in serious deflation for some time to come. Cash is King; dollar will actually strengthen. Cash and Gold in your safe is great; cash in the bank under the FDIC $100,000 limit is safe for now; and dollars + gold + foreign currencies in foreign bank accounts would be wise to start building.
Besides, heavy metals seems the wrong thing to rely on in an apocalyptic sea platform scenario...
My hedge is to stay at Google, despite realizing I'm really a startup person.