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Own physical gold & silver?

  • Oct. 6th, 2008 at 12:13 PM
side-beard-flip
So with what is arguably the greatest financial crisis in 80 years happening around us, what do y'all think about owning gold & silver, as a hedge against the breakdown of the international financial system?

Personally I have a lot of confidence in said international financial system, even after everything that's happened. Yeah, I'm worried about a run on the dollar, I'm worried about the US socializing a big sector of the economy and that weighing on our growth prospects. But I'm not very worried that the dollars in my safe will become worthless pieces of paper, and the ammo in my closet will become far more valuable. I think the US still produces lots of valuable stuff, and that puts a floor under the dollar.

Am I overly optimistic? Should I own physical gold & silver as preparation for a true apocalypse? Are there realistic situations where it would be better to stock up on gold & silver than on ammo & food? Are there realistic situations where it would be better to stock up on physical gold & silver than on financial futures related to gold & silver?

Are you worried about apocalypse? How are you hedging against it?

Comments

[info]antoniseb wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 07:21 pm (UTC)
I'm expecting a shorter version of the Great Depression, but am hopeful that I've merely been misled by a press and government that are riding a wave of fear.

In terms of what to buy... Gold and Silver are probably good. I think they might be overvalued now, but if the dollar and euro collapse, they will be good investments.

If things get *really* bad, you should invest in canned goods... but I'm not thinking it will get that bad.
[info]boffo wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 07:30 pm (UTC)
I never understood buying gold or silver as a hedge against an apocalypse. Gold only has value because everyone agrees it has value. But aside from making pretty jewelry and some industrial processes that won't have much relevance in the event of a complete breakdown, gold isn't useful for anything. You can't eat it. You can't make things out of it. I suppose you could hit someone over the head with it, in which case it's about as valuable as a good solid rock.

If you're really worried about an apocalypse, it seems to me that your best investments are things that will have value after an apocalypse, like ammunition, canned goods, basic tools, seeds, etc.
[info]crasch wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 09:53 pm (UTC)
Although I agree that you should build up your stores of practical goods first, gold has its uses.

Physical gold, unlike most other goods, is highly portable and universally valued. If you need to flee the country quickly (during Nazi regime, Russian pogroms, Cultural Revolution, Japanese internment), you can store enough gold in the seams of your clothing to restart your life in another country.


[info]chiefarcher wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 10:31 am (UTC)
gold
the word for gold in maori (new zealand) roughly translates to "Shiny worthless object that white people like"
[info]patrissimo wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 04:54 pm (UTC)
I think gold has value in a semi-apocalypse - where things are bad enough that banks and dollars aren't worth much, but good enough that there are still stores and trade. Seems like a pretty unlikely scenario to me.

Here's a more likely one: massive devaluation of the USD, combined with capital control laws that make it difficult for Americans to avoid the USD by investing in foreign markets & currencies. Then gold has use as a stable alternative to the dollar. This is basically the Zimbabwe scenario.
[info]zudini wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 11:21 pm (UTC)
Didn't work last time:

Executive Order 6102 ... by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt ... required all persons to deliver on or before May 1, 1933 all gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve ... at the government set price of $20.67 per ounce ....
[info]patrissimo wrote:
Oct. 8th, 2008 01:22 am (UTC)
Yeah, I'm sure I'd pay a lot of attention to that order!

Unless it was preceded by registration of the sale of physical gold, I don't think it would be a problem :).
[info]prock wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 07:35 pm (UTC)
The problem with physical gold is that the commisions on it are horrendous, not to mention the storage issues. Do you really want to have a couple pounds of gold sitting in your house? If you put in a safedeposit box, then it can be seized by the government. I only bring that up since that becomes a risk exactly when gold becomes truly valuable.

Personally, I share your general level of confidence, and nearly all of the gold I own is paper gold (IAU). Thus if the financial system does actually really and catastrophically collapse, there is a good chance that I'll never actually be able to "cash in" my paper gold.

I think the primary reason to hold gold is as a hedge agaisnt monetary risk. Right now it looks like most of the big economies are in a state of monetary uncertainy. I don't think anyone knows if the future will bring monetary deflation (as well as credit deflation) or hyper-inflation. There's also the chance that retaliatory devaluations enter into the game. That is to say, that everyone rushes to the printing press to keep each other's devaluations from killing their their foreign trade (most specifically China's peg to the dollar). So a "basket" of currencies may not serve hedging purposes as well as gold.

But since you don't earn interest on gold (and in my case I have to pay a fund something ludicrous to manage it) you really only want to hold it as a hedge, not as a primary position. I think you'd have to be very very pessimistic to allocate more than 10% or so to commodities in a recessionary environment.
[info]altamira16 wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 09:53 pm (UTC)
I am in the same boat as you are. The gold I own is paper gold GLD.
[info]jacqueline1776 wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 12:25 am (UTC)
I wonder if casino/poker room deposit boxes are as likely to be seized as bank deposit boxes. I doubt it. Probably a lot more privacy, too.
[info]prock wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 12:29 am (UTC)
Keeping significant value in the form of casino chips adds a whole new set of issues. And yes, they do get seized, by both casinos and the government.
[info]joepro wrote:
Oct. 9th, 2008 03:05 am (UTC)
Wow. That is about as good a piece on gold I have ever read. And my feelings exactly.
[info]scholarjeff wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 07:36 pm (UTC)
This isn't answering your post, but This American Life did a followup show to their "Giant Pool of Money" episode.

http://thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=365

"Another Frightening Show About The Economy". I haven't actually listened to it yet, so I don't know what it covers.
[info]irrationalrobot wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 07:41 pm (UTC)
Well, this is an interesting discussion.

I don't view realistically potential apocalypses as "roving gangs breaking into your house situations," at least not initially- more like "I'm having a hard time keeping the power on (either beacause it is expensive or the infrastructure is hosed)" and "How come I'm not getting much/any water out of my tap."

In those cases, it isn't gold, food, or bullets that's really the tricky thing- but perhaps sources of power. Batteries, coal (if you have a lot of food that will require heating), and maybe fresh water.

Any crisis in which the infrastructure COMPLETELY breaks down (the grocery store loses power and can't freeze/refrigerate food, deliveries of water are interrupted or stopped) will be a nightmare as things get worse.

I have a really hard time believing that we could have that kind of disaster short of a coordinated NBC (nuke/bio/chemical) on multiple cities at the same time, and I don't feel like investing the time and effort in fully preparing for that disaster ahead of time.

Nah, a bunch of batteries, decent flashlights, good blankets, and a couple of weeks worth of food that doesn't require cooking is a really good start. At some point, we should probably get a few 5 gallon jugs of water, too.
[info]litch wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 10:05 pm (UTC)
+1
Power and Water (and Transit) are the heart of government.

If I had the cash to blow I'd get a shipping container full of generators and stick them in safe place that was cheap. I'd also set aside a couple of commercial grade water filter systems
[info]wnissen wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 04:03 am (UTC)
Re: +1
A US$2K water filter I can only see being useful if you're making a break for it in some kind of motorized transport. For less than $100, you can get a 200L water barrel http://beprepared.com/product.asp_Q_pn_E_WS%20B700_A_name_E_%5B%5BProductNameURL%5D%5D It's completely non-portable and hard if you don't have storage space, but from a risk/benefit standpoint I have a hard time investing a lot.

But yes, water is the number one means of survival. The infrastructure required to deliver potable water is so extensive that we use it as the measure of a civilization, and yet you'd be dead in a week without it. In either the anarchy or totalitarian scenarios it would be useful to have a couple weeks water while gathering resources for an escape or waiting for a rescue.
[info]kirinn wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 07:39 pm (UTC)
Re: +1
You know, it occurs to me that given there's a creek running not far behind my house I might be able to get an even cheaper minor hedge against disaster in the form of some nice compact water filter.
[info]grepmaster wrote:
Oct. 9th, 2008 03:27 pm (UTC)
Re: +1
Just be careful about the difference between consumer grade activated carbon filters (Brita etc), which get rid of things like pesticides, lead, and arsenic, versus things which get rid of bacteria (boiling the water, strong UV, ozone, etc).
[info]zuleikhajami wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 07:54 pm (UTC)
I am worried about the apocalypse, but I am not hedging against it. The things that seem useful to me are storing water and securing food. I don't think I have a good way to secure water for the long term (although I might stock up some in my garage), and I've already failed at getting an herb/vegetable garden growing. :)

Mostly, I think if an apocalypse happens, I'm just screwed. I'm not going to morph into Sarah Connor overnight, and I have no delusions about my levels of badassness.

I don't think storing gold/silver will be useful. Maybe it will buy stuff on a black market, but I'd think having needed items for barter would be more useful.
[info]tiltcity wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 08:17 pm (UTC)
Silver is good to have against werewolves. Gold is useful for making hip hop videos. In a post-apocalyptic world where werewolves and hip hop videos would inevitably predominate, you would be glad you had stocked up on gold and silver.

-just my two (copper) cents
(Anonymous) wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 02:20 am (UTC)
> -just my two (copper) cents

I think you mean zinc.
[info]abyrneseyeview wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 08:43 pm (UTC)
(I have probably said this before)
There is an incredibly narrow range of outcomes in which 1) there's enough chaos that physical gold was a better deal than gold derivatives, gold ETFs, or gold mining stocks, but 2) there is not so much chaos that your physical gold is confiscated by governments, brigands, or post-singularity robots.

If you're ranking chaos from 1 to 10, physical gold is probably a good deal for some incredibly narrow range, like 7 to 7.5.

Of course, the other problem is that it's almost not worth hedging against such a huge disaster. It might be better to make investments that avoid subsidizing practices that cause systemic risk (e.g. not holding money in banks, not getting involved in highly leveraged financial companies).

Why not just buy shares of low-leverage, high return-on-capital companies? If we switch to the gold standard, or start bartering cigarettes and mackerel, Coca-Cola will probably retain a huge fraction of its real value.
(Anonymous) wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 08:48 pm (UTC)
That's what diversify means
Funny you mention this, I just yesterday considered acquiring gold coins as a small hedge against the falling dollar.

To respond to a previous commenter, gold isn't really in and of itself useful for many things--that much I agree with. But historically it's proven itself a useful monetary instrument as it doesn't corrode, can be materially divisible, and has a natural scarcity that is a natural deterrent to inflation.

Physically holding gold during an apocalypse is probably going to do little good (unless you're the pirate type, arrgh). But physically holding gold is a great way to store some of your dollar's value as it plummets like the Continental Dollar did. Holding gold through a recession/depression will likely preserve its present value, so after the recovery you have a small nest egg. Physically holding gold will prevent a possible confiscation in the spirit of Executive Order 6102 like FDR signed in 1933.

How much you store in-hand is a personal choice I suppose. You'd have to protect it like you would anything else of value within your house. Agreed too that more than 10% in gold is a pretty pessimistic outlook.
[info]magicpacket wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 01:06 am (UTC)
Re: That's what diversify means
I doubt we would see another gold confiscation order a la FDR. He did it because there was a run on gold from the treasury and he was preparing to raise the (governmentally-fixed) price from $20.67 an ounce to $35.something. So he wanted to get all the gold back before devaluing everbody else's dollars. It also wasn't strict confiscation, you were just required to cash out for dollars and holding currency gold (i.e. other than jewelry and flatware) became illegal.

Since gold prices currently float, I don't see that the government has the same kind of incentive for a massive confiscation effort. And banks don't keep inventories of deposit boxes (and typically give you a privacy room so the teller can't even see the contents), so they'd have to drill the locks of every box to search them (unless you believe they keep the code or spare keys for the customer locks, but then why do they drill them if you lose your keys?). Not an insurmountable obstacle, but it seems unlikely to me.

Downsides of storing physical gold include the "need" to insure it. Your bank tries to protect, but I believe does not insure, the contents of your vault. Even if your homeower's policy covered it, which it almost certainly doesn't, it would have a terribly low limit without an explicit rider (my renter's policy limit is $300 for precious metals). But your insurance company is gone anyway in the apocalypse, so insurance is only useful for the more likely (but still pretty unlikely) bank-gets-robbed-completely-unrelated-to-apocalypse scenario. That insurance cost is built in to the fees of paper gold like GLD.

I've been thinking about getting some gold bullion for my safebox, mostly as an apocalyptic hedge in the case of it sneaking up on me before I have time to stockpile all the other stuff people have been talking about (food, water, guns, ammo, fuel, generators). I live in an apartment without much storage, so stockpiling is tricky. But if I have some gold, I've got a chance of buying some black market goods. It would also let me eventually come out of the other side of the bread lines with some value still stored.

I should really do more research before continuing with this comment here and looking stupid, but someone will probably correct me or add detail. I believe Russia at one point experienced a scenario where the state basically took over all (only rental?) property, and wherever you had previously been living became "yours". No more buying, selling, or moving. Not that I think that is particularly likely to come to pass here, but given some historical precedent it's worth considering. At least I like my apartment, even if I'd rather be in a house (for many reasons including stockpiling ability). Yet now is still not an appropriate time to buy in the areas of San Diego that hold my attention.
[info]magicpacket wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 01:16 am (UTC)
Re: That's what diversify means
Also, an apocalypse here would be pretty devastating worldwide. So fleeing the country isn't in my apocalyptic plan. Given my goals above, I think an appropriate current value to store would be $5k-$10k in 1/10th ounce bullion, probably Krugerrands.

(At $850/oz, $10k would be about 118 tenth-ounce coins, a 5.5 inch-high stack at 16.5mm diameter, very easy to store.)
[info]marknau wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 09:12 pm (UTC)
Most of my commodities are "paper," and being held as part of a general hedging strategy that tries to cover all non-apocolyptic scenarios.

I have a stock of physical silver (junk coins) as a money supply for high-chaos scenarios that fall just short of apocalyse. I also have ammo and food, but not in quantities to assure survival given an EOTWAWKI scenario. Just enough to ride out a wave of major chaos.

[info]jon_leonard wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 09:21 pm (UTC)
It's been a long time since gold and silver were "Real Money", long enough that it's not at all clear they'd be the currency of choice during turmoil.

The hedges I'd choose against a real catastrophe would be food, water, and ammunition. And if it gets to that point, I'm probably dead anyway...

For lesser degrees of turmoil, some assets denominated in relatively strong foreign currencies, with some geographic diversity is probably better. Not that I know what the market in Swiss stocks looks like, but I don't think the risk of either degree of catastrophe is high enough to warrant my spending time studying the issue right now. (Relative US decline is, but just picking up some foreign stocks is the hedge for that.)

The other thing to consider is that hide-in-your-house kinds of reserves earn no (or negative: spoilage) interest, so you really don't want that much wealth in those forms.
[info]prock wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 09:35 pm (UTC)
It's been a long time since gold and silver were "Real Money"

Geez, I don't feel that old.
[info]jon_leonard wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 03:24 am (UTC)
It does depend on how, exactly, you define "Real Money". I was thinking of the 1965 end of silver in US coinage, and noting that people who started working then will be nearing retirement already. It seems to take Wall Street about 15 years to forget important economic lessons (that being about the period of the housing cycle), and we've had about 3 such chances to forget since then.

Depending on how you interpret Bretton Woods, though, you can get different definitions. I find any date after 1968 highly dubious, since business in the US was transacted in dollars, and the dollar didn't have a fixed peg at that point. Arguing in terms of market habit, though, the start of the Bretton Woods system really marks the end of gold as the primary currency: Other countries held dollars instead of gold, because they could be converted to gold if need be, but dollar holdings paid interest.

Or, alternately, you could mark the end of circulating US gold coins (1933) as the beginning of the end for metals currency.

Hard, metal-backed, currency has been gradually on the way out for some time... What you call the end (and for that matter, "a long time") is arguable. Certainly the Hunt Brothers' 1980 attempt to institute an alternate, silver-backed currency seemed more odd than workable.
[info]prock wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 03:51 am (UTC)
Maybe it depends more on how you define "a long time". I don't consider 40 years that long at all, especially in the context of economic history.
[info]jon_leonard wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 05:08 am (UTC)
Ok, I can buy that. I certainly complain about people forgetting things that happened a mere 200 years ago.
[info]shandrew wrote:
Oct. 12th, 2008 07:54 am (UTC)
Buying the gold in the form of jewelry has a few advantages:
- Has a use beyond value storage
- Less likely to be confiscated (either by government, or crossing borders), much less likely to raise suspicions
- Probably easier to insure
- Gold alloys are more durable
- more blingy

There's certainly a price premium, but some jewelry stores sell gold jewelry by the ounce/purity at only a small premium over market prices for bullion.
[info]charleshaynes wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 10:58 pm (UTC)
"Are you worried about apocalypse? How are you hedging against it?"

No. Moved to Australia. Bought property.

[info]avani wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 06:51 pm (UTC)
:)
[info]dagon.net wrote:
Oct. 6th, 2008 11:59 pm (UTC)
You need to define your threat model before you can answer how much time/effort/expense it's worth spending to protect against it. I'm in agreement with those who say that it's a pretty narrow range of global/national catastrophes which lead to physical gold being incredibly valued and gold-backed paper being worthless, without outright killing you.

There may be personal disasters where it would be a good idea. Certain categories of government harassment, for instance - you might get a fair amount of value from some real-estate and assets in a semi-friendly country, along with enough expensive-looking jewelry and varied paper currency to trade for emergency off-book travel.
[info]patrissimo wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 05:12 pm (UTC)
Agreed. So what is the threat model? What are the most likely catastrophes we should be trying to protect against?
[info]prock wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 05:50 pm (UTC)
Global warming?

;)
[info]jacqueline1776 wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 12:23 am (UTC)
http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/10/heard-in-the-ha.html

Personally I am rooting for high inflation (to make my student loan debt insignificant) but not a full-blown apocalypse. :)
(Anonymous) wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 02:00 am (UTC)
A good, non apocalyptic, scenario for gold would be the Chinese central bank selling some of its dollar reserve to fight its inflation and buying gold to have a stronger balance sheet.

A.B.
(Anonymous) wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 02:02 am (UTC)
> [Are there realistic scenarios where physical gold is better than ammo and food, and also better than GLD?]

One scenario, like the other guy pointed out, is to have a store of wealth that you can carry on your person as you exit the country *ahead* of the apocalypse. Sometimes (often?) there is a fair amount of warning before the shit really hits the fan.

Holding physical gold, if it is not registered, also might get you around the scenario where the government lays a punitive tax upon unpatriotic speculation in non-productive assets. Selling unregistered gold would presumably be illegal and somewhat dangerous in that situation, though.

I wish I had bought physical gold earlier as a hedge against scenario #1, but I didn't. I suspect that paper gold will do well over the next few years due to "global coordinated easing" of money supply. I've not bought much yet as we've also got deflation looming. Hard to know what to do.
[info]zarex wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 02:15 am (UTC)
It's difficult to enforce taxes on physical gold transactions.
[info]akjdg wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 04:33 am (UTC)
If you want to buy high on spec of selling higher, then buy precious metals. Or .com stocks, or financial stocks, or energy stocks...

If you think the US is going to get so bad that you have to evac to a better place, then (1) buy just enough gold to sew into your clothes and start a new life abroad, (2) why are you still here? You should still leave while jet travel is possible, right? and (3) Just where is better, exactly?

If you want to buy, buy stuff that's on sale. Land. Banks. Buffet plopped $5B of his $40B liquidity into one of the broken banks a week or so ago. Telling.

If the US tanks big time, anywhere in the geopolitical/financial world will suck, and most any financial instrument you own will collapse. Buy a compound where you can be self sufficient, arm yourself to the teeth, become self sufficient WRT food, energy, etc, and call yourself some freaky cult name, like Moose Men for Malted Moonshine (wait... pick something else, that one's MINE!)
[info]patrissimo wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 05:13 pm (UTC)
Buffet got terms on his bank shares that I can't get, sadly.
[info]markgritter wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 04:46 am (UTC)
One thing nobody's mentioned yet is that in an apocalyptic scenario, the gold bullion in Fort Knox will probably end up in private hands pretty quickly. So if you're living around Kentucky your gold will probably endure rapid inflation as the stolen gold enters circulation. Out in CA you are probably safe from this risk. ;)
[info]freelikebeer wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 01:52 pm (UTC)
I cringe ...
thinking about the hillbillies who will appropriate the gold in Ft. Knox.

As for all the gold in Calfornia, it's in a bank in the middle of Beverly Hills, in somebody else's name.
[info]175560 wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 06:06 am (UTC)
The futures make sense as a financial hedge; I think their anticorrelation with market movements is well-documented, and makes sense given the highly inelastic supply (precious metals are mined at a very slow, steady rate, so if demand spikes, it strains inventories and drives prices up a lot).

I think you have to live in Montana to be eligible to own the physical metal, though. =)
[info]chiefarcher wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 10:33 am (UTC)
I've hedged by bet my buying a metric crap ton of PUTS on the market.
doing quite well.. but will $10kUSD buy me a loaf of bread? who knows.


[info]adam__selene wrote:
Oct. 7th, 2008 11:11 pm (UTC)
Gold, not Silver
You say Gold & Silver as if they are similar, when really they are not. Gold is money; Silver is an industrial commodity, despite some historical uses as money.

We are in serious deflation for some time to come. Cash is King; dollar will actually strengthen. Cash and Gold in your safe is great; cash in the bank under the FDIC $100,000 limit is safe for now; and dollars + gold + foreign currencies in foreign bank accounts would be wise to start building.

[info]gorimek wrote:
Oct. 8th, 2008 07:11 am (UTC)
No apocalypse near that level. The better investment question is what stock to buy. What business will emerge dominant in this new world? I have yet to understand what is actually happening anywhere close to that level. Those who do will be very rich.

Besides, heavy metals seems the wrong thing to rely on in an apocalyptic sea platform scenario...

My hedge is to stay at Google, despite realizing I'm really a startup person.

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