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dmorr's post that he is being put in the big one, getting to keep half his equity, reminded me that I have been vaguely thinking about selling some of my WSOP 10K equity. It lowers my variance, gives people rooting fun, and gives me being-rooted-for fun, all of which I like. I don't want to sell too much - after all, it's the best tournament EV opportunity of the year. But I was thinking of selling up to 25% at 2:1 (ie $200/1%). Because the variance of large tournaments is monstrous, you should consider this a lottery ticket with (hopefully) an edge. That is, most of the time you will get nothing, occasionally you will get several times your money, and very occasionally you will get a crazy return like 50:1 up to 1000:1.Alternatively, even better than a sell is a swap with a good player, since that lowers variance without giving up EV. If any of you are going to play and want to swap, e-mail me. Since there are people who read my LJ and are playing in the big one who I believe play better than me, and those who I believe play worse than me, I'm happy to consider non-par swaps.
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Comments
I didn't start playing poker until less than a year ago, so I'm not ready for the WSOP main event yet (still slumming at Party 5/10), but maybe next year.
Alternatively, even better than a sell is a swap with a good player, since that lowers variance without giving up EV.
Another way to lower variance without giving up EV is to sell shares at par value or above. Then you should be happy to sell, and people might still buy for the same reason they buy lottery tickets. It'd be "gambling" rather than "investing", but a lot of people enjoy doing that.
Another way to lower variance without giving up EV is to sell shares at par value or above.
Huh? If I believe myself to be +EV, then if I sold shares at par, I would be giving up EV (a substantial amount, I believe) compared to putting up the money myself. If I could not afford to put up the money myself, then I would not be giving up anything, 'tis true. But since I can afford to, I merely prefer not to, its not worth it.
~D
(My own game is blackjack, for which EV calculations tend to be a pretty straightforward affair.)
In any case, I agree that you're probably worth more than 2:1, and I'd love to take 5%. raphael@pobox.com
I'm pretty confident I'm better than 2:1, but given that this is the only tournament of this size I'm playing this year, I don't like the variance.
Anyway, you've got 5%.
Well, you don't have the advantage of comparing enough trials you've made, but you can look at the group of players that are your peers, and then see how they've done in the thing.
Hmm, though it requires a bit more work, you don't have to limit it to your peers. Throw in everyone you think you have good info on, whether they're better or worse than you, and then interpolate. I don't know how much farther that gets you then noticing "there's a lot of dead money here", but it feels like you could do something with it.
Now of course, I'm pleased that you posted at 2-1. You should be able to see if that turns out to be a low number, if it is, someone in the know should buy all that you're willing to sell, and then resell it at a higher price to late-comers.
Heck, I don't know if they're set up for it, but perhaps a contract on Tradesports...
Dropped off a check this evening.
Any chance I can buy a 0.1% share. I am not feeling terribly solvent right now, but would love to participate.
Incidentally, I root for you just for bragging rights already... "Hey, that's my friend with the purple hair - he got into the money!"
If you're selling partial shares, I'd be willing to kick in a $20 or so. I can't afford $200 right now. Sigh.
And Robbbbbbb you can buy 10% of my share if Patri does this and doesn't feel like dealing with tiny shares.
best,
Carl
Thank You Kindly.
How do those EVs compare with the o8 event or some of the other games?
How can a swap be large enough to provide worthwhile variance reduction yet small enough so that it won't -- even at the subconscious margin on close decisions -- affect play? Further, why should your opponents have to worry about your judgment in finding that bright line as well as about whether you've flopped a set?
Since -- especially in large tournaments -- the chance of being at the same table and thus losing the variance reduction (or other preceived benefit) of a swap is small, why not avoid the potential conflict problem and adopt and promote the proviso: no financial interest in the results of an opponent at the same table.
Now, how much are we going to swap? :)
The tradition of "small" swaps started in another era. We are now -- for a while, at least -- in an era in which multi-million prize pools are common. Let's keep it clean, and let's bend over backwards if necessary to do so.
There is no way to quantify the variables. I just think it's a good idea to start -- this will be like turning around a huge ship -- moving in the direction of avoiding potential conflicts. And the way to start is for individual players to take a stand.
As to how much to swap -- with The Proviso, of course -- see email :)
In fact, in this situation, you should probably forfeit instead of playing a single hand in order to keep your 5% in the other guy.
So I think this is unlikely to have much effect. One thing to remember is that it is pretty much random what table you are assigned to as tables change. So if you are on the bubble, that means there are 50 tables left. Even if your table gets broken (split up and sent to empty seats at other tables), there is only a 1 in 49 chance that you will end up at his table!
Are people allowed to withdraw from these tournaments at any time? If so, you could always leave before being dealt into a hand with someone whose equity you want to keep.
The situation you describe is extremely unlikely. And in order for one person to have an EV of 1M, it has to be very late in the tournament, which means that the short-stack probably has an EV of tens of thousands, making that $1000 consideration quite small. Note that in general, the value of your 5% stake in the big stack and the value of your small stack go up together, because stack size is in general correlated to ante size.
Event #9 - WSOP $2,000 No Limit Hold'em
3 Perry Friedman (San Marcos, CA, USA) $196,455
http://www7.pinnaclesports.com/guestcon
Pinnacle has no odds on Patri. I'm filing a complaint ;-)
Patri, make a big splash and rectify that lack of notoriety.